Increased household transmission and immune escape of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant compared to the Delta variant: evidence from Norwegian contact tracing and vaccination data (preprint)

Understanding the rapid epidemic growth of the novel SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is critical for public health management. We compared the secondary attack rate (SAR) of the Omicron and Delta variants in households using Norwegian contact tracing data from December 2021 to January 2022. Omicron SAR was higher (51%) than Delta (36%), with a relative risk (RR) of 1.41 (95% CI 1.27–1.56). We observed increased susceptibility to Omicron infection in household contacts compared to Delta independent of vaccination status; however, considering booster vaccinated contacts, the mean SAR was lower for both variants. We found increased Omicron transmissibility in all vaccination groups of primary cases, except partially vaccinated, compared to Delta. In particular, Omicron SAR for boosted primary cases was high, 46% vs 11% for Delta (RR 4.34; 95% CI 1.52–25.16). In conclusion, booster doses decrease the infection risk of Delta and Omicron but have limited effect in preventing Omicron transmission.

Increased household transmission and immune escape of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant compared to the Delta variant: evidence from Norwegian contact tracing and vaccination data (preprint)

We compared the secondary attack rate (SAR) of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants in households using contact tracing data. Omicron SAR was higher (41%) than Delta (35%), likely due to immune evasion. Booster dose reduces risk of infection but has limited effect on preventing Omicron transmission.

Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants (preprint)

Background: As of April 2, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases has crossed over 1 million with more than 55,000 deaths. The household transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen, remains elusive. Methods: Based on a comprehensive contact-tracing dataset from Guangzhou, we estimated both the population-level effective reproductive number and individual-level secondary attack rate (SAR) in the household setting. We assessed age effects on transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. Results: A total of 195 unrelated clusters with 212 primary cases, 137 nonprimary (secondary or tertiary) cases and 1938 uninfected close contacts were traced. We estimated the household SAR to be 13.8% (95% CI: 11.1-17.0%) if household contacts are defined as all close relatives and 19.3% (95% CI: 15.5-23.9%) if household contacts only include those at the same residential address as the cases, assuming a mean incubation period of 4 days and a maximum infectious period of 13 days. The odds of infection among children (<20 years old) was only 0.26 (95% CI: 0.13-0.54) times of that among the elderly ([≥]60 years old). There was no gender difference in the risk of infection. COVID-19 cases were at least as infectious during their incubation period as during their illness. On average, a COVID-19 case infected 0.48 (95% CI: 0.39-0.58) close contacts. Had isolation not been implemented, this number increases to 0.62 (95% CI: 0.51-0.75). The effective reproductive number in Guangzhou dropped from above 1 to below 0.5 in about 1 week. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly [≥]60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of human movement as implemented in Guangzhou.

Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China (preprint)

Our manuscript was based on surveillance cases of COVID-19 identified before January 26, 2020. As of February 20, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases in mainland China has reached 18 times of the number in our manuscript. While the methods and the main conclusions in our original analyses remain solid, we decided to withdraw this preprint for the time being, and will replace it with a more up-to-date version shortly. Should you have any comments or suggestions, please feel free to contact the corresponding author.